Modeling the COVID‑19 spread, a case study of Egypt

Document Type : Original Article

Authors

1 Engineering Mathematics and Physics Department, Faculty of Engineering, Cairo University, Giza 12613, Egypt.

2 Misr University for Science and Technology, Cairo, Egypt.

https://doi.org/10.1186/s42787-021-00122-x

Abstract

In this article, the authors applied a logistic growth model explaining the dynamics
of the spread of COVID-19 in Egypt. The model which is simple follows well-known
premises in population dynamics. Our aim is to calculate an approximate estimate of
the total number of infected persons during the course of the disease. The model pre‑
dicted—to a high degree of correctness—the timing of the pandemic peak tm and the
fnal epidemic size P; the latter was foreseen by the model long before it was announced
by the Egyptian authorities. The estimated values from the model were also found to
match signifcantly with the nation reported data during the course of the disease. The
period in which we applied the model was from the frst of April 2020 until the begin‑
ning of October of the same year. By the time the manuscript was returned for revision,
the second wave swept through Egypt and the authors felt obliged to renew their
study. Finally, a comparison is made with the SIR model showing that ours is much
simpler; yet leading to the same results.

Keywords

Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society
Volume 29, Issue 1
2021
Pages 1-16

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