Mathematical model of the spread of COVID‑19 in Plateau State, Nigeria

Document Type : Original Article

Abstract

In this research, a mathematical model consisting of non-pharmaceutical control measures
is formulated. The developed model helps to examine the transmission of COVID-
19 infection in Plateau State, Nigeria, using face masks cf and social distancing cd as
control measures. Data used for the simulation of the developed model were obtained
from Nigeria Centre for Disease Control which was fitted to the system of ordinary
differential equations using nonlinear least squares method. Results at baseline values
cf = 0.1 and cd = 0.2 of control measures indicate 2.3 estimation as basic reproduction
number which suggests that COVID-19 in Plateau State tends towards endemic state.
However, above about 40% in the use of face masks in the population and corresponding
above 50% adherence to social distancing could as well bring down the basic
reproduction number to a value below 1 necessary for disease eradication. The results
at baseline values further indicate that the peak of the COVID-19 had been reached in less than 250 days from the first detection date after about 476,455 undetected asymptomatic individuals, 92,168 undetected symptomatic individuals and 83,801 detected quarantined individuals have been fully infectious. Therefore, the policymakers in Plateau State have the possibility of eradicating the disease with further strict non-pharmaceutical control measures provided that the present conditions of analysis remain fairly the same.

Keywords

Journal of the Egyptian Mathematical Society
Volume 30, Issue 1
2022
Pages 1-18

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